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Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 2299%YesNo
  • August 2596%YesNo
$1.5M—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance
YesNo
$59.3MMonthly—

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

  • December 3110%YesNo
  • November 306%YesNo
$16.0M—

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

  • Gadi Eizenkot57%YesNo
  • Benjamin Netanyahu29%YesNo
$32.8M—

Iran leader end of 2026?

  • Mojtaba Khamenei83%YesNo
  • No Head of State4%YesNo
$38.7M—

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

15%chance
YesNo
$381.2K—

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

  • December 315%YesNo
$21.8M—

Will Iran target Egypt by...?

  • September 307%YesNo
  • September 152%YesNo
$21.3KMonthly—

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

18%chance
YesNo
$336.7K—

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

  • December 314%YesNo
$7.8MMonthly—

US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

  • August 313%YesNo
$1.6M—

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

  • December 3124%YesNo
  • September 307%YesNo
$6.8M—

Will Iran target Syria by...?

  • September 157%YesNo
  • August 315%YesNo
$6.6KMonthly—

Will Iran target Oman by...?

  • September 308%YesNo
$27.7KMonthly—

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

7%chance
YesNo
$24.8MMonthly—

Israel military action against Syria by...?

  • September 3042%YesNo
  • September 1527%YesNo
$6.1KMonthly—

Netanyahu out by...?

  • December 3149%YesNo
$124.1MMonthly—

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

  • August 1780%YesNo
  • August 219%YesNo
$248.1KDaily—

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

  • September 1550%YesNo
  • September 3035%YesNo
$4.1KMonthly—

USD x Iranian rials End of August?

  • 1.9-2.0M46%YesNo
  • 1.8-1.9M41%YesNo
$48.1KMonthly—

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

  • December 318%YesNo
$17.8M—

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

  • August 3148%YesNo
  • August 228%YesNo
$3.6KMonthly—

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

  • December 3127%YesNo
  • September 307%YesNo
$1.0M—

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

  • August 311%YesNo
$1.0M—