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AllIran CeasefireU.S. x IranStrait of HormuzPeace DealNegotiation TopicsOilIsrael x IranLebanonIran RegimeNuclear
AllIran CeasefireU.S. x IranStrait of HormuzPeace DealNegotiation TopicsOilIsrael x IranLebanonIran RegimeNuclear

Iran

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

  • December 3184%YesNo
  • October 3173%YesNo
$12.7M—

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

  • July 3199%YesNo
  • August 1498%YesNo
$16.9M—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

  • August 313%YesNo
$18.3MMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

16%chance
YesNo
$3.0MMonthly—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

19%chance
YesNo
$58.4MMonthly—

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 1597%YesNo
  • August 3190%YesNo
$24.1M—

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

  • December 3124%YesNo
  • November 3017%YesNo
$14.4M—

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

24%chance
YesNo
$1.5M—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

47%chance
YesNo
$7.9MMonthly—

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

  • December 3117%YesNo
  • September 3011%YesNo
$10.2M—

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

  • September 3046%YesNo
  • August 3119%YesNo
$9.1MMonthly—

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

  • No Meeting by September 3054%YesNo
  • Switzerland16%YesNo
$4.1MDaily—

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

  • December 3110%YesNo
  • September 304%YesNo
$70.5M—

Israel closes its airspace by...?

  • August 319%YesNo
  • August 152%YesNo
$26.9M—

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

  • August 151%YesNo
$9.0M—

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

  • August 3119%YesNo
  • August 157%YesNo
$450.0K—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

13%chance
YesNo
$46.5KMonthly—

Iran leader end of 2026?

  • Mojtaba Khamenei81%YesNo
  • No Head of State5%YesNo
$38.5M—

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

  • September 3076%YesNo
  • August 3153%YesNo
$227.9K—

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

  • US13%YesNo
  • UK3%YesNo
$210.9KMonthly—

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

  • August 1313%YesNo
$96.8KMonthly—

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

  • August 1197%YesNo
  • August 1317%YesNo
$171.4KDaily—

Iran full airspace closure by...?

  • December 3130%YesNo
  • September 3017%YesNo
$8.2M—

Iran leadership change by...?

  • June 30, 202733%YesNo
  • December 3119%YesNo
$23.3M—