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Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 2299%YesNo
  • August 2595%YesNo
$1.4M—

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

  • December 3167%YesNo
  • October 3143%YesNo
$18.2M—

Iran leadership change by...?

  • June 30, 202725%YesNo
  • December 3116%YesNo
$24.0M—

Will Iran target a Arab country on...?

  • August 3112%YesNo
  • August 2911%YesNo
$626.7K—

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

  • December 3126%YesNo
  • October 3114%YesNo
$5.9M—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

6%chance
YesNo
$5.1MMonthly—

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

  • March 31, 202760%YesNo
  • December 31, 202647%YesNo
$9.8MMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

30%chance
YesNo
$8.9MMonthly—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance
YesNo
$59.3MMonthly—

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

  • December 318%YesNo
  • September 303%YesNo
$71.3M—

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

  • June 30, 202713%YesNo
  • December 31, 20268%YesNo
$21.4M—

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

  • December 3110%YesNo
  • November 306%YesNo
$16.0M—

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 3196%YesNo
  • September 3082%YesNo
$26.1M—

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%chance
YesNo
$39.9MMonthly—

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

4%chance
YesNo
$12.4MMonthly—

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

  • December 3121%YesNo
  • October 3111%YesNo
$11.0M—

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

  • Gadi Eizenkot57%YesNo
  • Benjamin Netanyahu29%YesNo
$32.8M—

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%chance
YesNo
$11.0MMonthly—

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

  • No Meeting by September 3080%YesNo
  • Switzerland9%YesNo
$5.0MDaily—

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

31%chance
YesNo
$268.8K—

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

  • Nicolás Maduro86%YesNo
  • Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
$95.8M—

Crude Oil all time high by...?

  • December 3114%YesNo
  • September 302%YesNo
$2.7M—

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

8%chance
YesNo
$3.0MMonthly—

Israel closes its airspace by...?

  • September 309%YesNo
  • August 314%YesNo
$27.3M—