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Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

  • December 3184%YesNo
  • October 3173%YesNo
$12.8M—

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

  • August 1499%YesNo
  • July 3199%YesNo
$16.9M—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

  • August 313%YesNo
$18.4MMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

16%chance
YesNo
$3.0MMonthly—

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 1597%YesNo
  • August 3190%YesNo
$24.1M—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

19%chance
YesNo
$58.4MMonthly—

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

  • December 3124%YesNo
  • November 3017%YesNo
$14.4M—

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

24%chance
YesNo
$1.5M—

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

  • June 30, 202712%YesNo
  • December 31, 20268%YesNo
$20.3M—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

47%chance
YesNo
$7.9MMonthly—

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

  • December 3117%YesNo
  • September 3011%YesNo
$10.2M—

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

  • September 3045%YesNo
  • August 3118%YesNo
$9.1MMonthly—

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

  • August 1197%YesNo
  • August 1318%YesNo
$222.7KDaily—

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

  • No Meeting by September 3055%YesNo
  • Switzerland16%YesNo
$4.1MDaily—

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

  • Venezuela49%YesNo
  • Lebanon13%YesNo
$432.0KMonthly—

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

  • Gadi Eizenkot53%YesNo
  • Benjamin Netanyahu29%YesNo
$31.8M—

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

  • Nicolás Maduro82%YesNo
  • Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
$95.4M—

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

  • December 3110%YesNo
  • September 304%YesNo
$70.5M—

Israel closes its airspace by...?

  • August 319%YesNo
  • August 152%YesNo
$26.9M—

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

  • August 151%YesNo
$9.0M—

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

  • August 3119%YesNo
  • August 155%YesNo
$450.1K—

Trump out as President before 2027?

7%chance
YesNo
$10.6MMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

13%chance
YesNo
$53.9KMonthly—

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

  • September 3072%YesNo
  • August 3153%YesNo
$229.1K—