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Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 2299%YesNo
  • August 2596%YesNo
$1.5M—

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

  • December 3167%YesNo
  • October 3143%YesNo
$18.2M—

Iran leadership change by...?

  • June 30, 202725%YesNo
  • December 3116%YesNo
$24.0M—

Will Iran target a Arab country on...?

  • August 3111%YesNo
  • August 2610%YesNo
$626.8K—

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

  • March 31, 202762%YesNo
  • December 31, 202647%YesNo
$9.8MMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

6%chance
YesNo
$5.1MMonthly—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance
YesNo
$59.3MMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

30%chance
YesNo
$8.9MMonthly—

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

  • December 318%YesNo
  • September 303%YesNo
$71.3M—

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

  • December 3110%YesNo
  • November 306%YesNo
$16.0M—

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

  • August 3196%YesNo
  • September 3084%YesNo
$26.1M—

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

  • December 3120%YesNo
  • October 3111%YesNo
$11.0M—

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

  • No Meeting by September 3080%YesNo
  • Switzerland9%YesNo
$5.0MDaily—

Crude Oil all time high by...?

  • December 3114%YesNo
  • September 302%YesNo
$2.7M—

Israel closes its airspace by...?

  • September 309%YesNo
  • August 313%YesNo
$27.3M—

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

  • September 3037%YesNo
  • August 317%YesNo
$842.4K—

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

  • September 3016%YesNo
  • September 157%YesNo
$618.0K—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

14%chance
YesNo
$121.8KMonthly—

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

  • December 3142%YesNo
  • October 3131%YesNo
$2.4M—

Iran full airspace closure by...?

  • December 3130%YesNo
  • September 3012%YesNo
$8.6M—

Iran leader end of 2026?

  • Mojtaba Khamenei83%YesNo
  • No Head of State4%YesNo
$38.7M—

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

  • October 3163%YesNo
  • August 314%YesNo
$19.3KMonthly—

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

2%chance
YesNo
$415.3KMonthly—

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

2%chance
YesNo
$1.7MMonthly—