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Iran Ceasefire
U.S. x Iran
Strait of Hormuz
Peace Deal
Negotiation Topics
Oil
Israel x Iran
Lebanon
Iran Regime
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Iran
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
25%
Yes
No
December 31
16%
Yes
No
$24.0M
—
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
No
September 30
3%
Yes
No
$71.3M
—
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
83%
Yes
No
No Head of State
4%
Yes
No
$38.7M
—
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$1.7M
Monthly
—
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
5%
Yes
No
$21.8M
—
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$24.8M
Monthly
—
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
1%
Yes
No
$174.2K
—
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$11.7M
—
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$631.1K
—
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
1%
Yes
No
$121.7K
—
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
1%
Yes
No
$52.9K
—
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
1%
Yes
No
$62.1K
—
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
1%
Yes
No
$88.5K
—
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
No
$624.7K
—
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
No
$767.4K
—
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$158.3K
—
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
No
$2.1M
—
